To someone whose sight is not often trained on matters that involve Asian countries' relations, the news that Iranian soldiers were arrested at the border between Pakistan and Iran might not be big news. However, it is a very significant incident, in that it is witness to the increasing tensions between the two countries.
As Syria's conflict explodes into all out murder by the Assad regime, and Iran supports unabashedly that regime, a larger fracture of the already fractious Arab and Asian landscape is taking place.
Although the signs are everywhere, the wider pattern has not yet emerged. But those signs are ominous. A large scale division of Muslim majority countries along sectarian lines has the potential for a war that could engulf the entire corridor from the Mediterranean to China's doorstep.
The Sunni- Shi'a divide. Areas in turquoise are Shi'a ruled or majority, light brown areas are Sunni ruled or majority.
But let's return for a moment to the five detained Iranian military.
Just recently, the five border guards were kidnapped by the so called Army of Justice or Jaish al-Adl. However, the guards might have illegally crossed the border with Pakistan to conduct covert surveillance on the militants that are hiding in the semi-autonomous region of Balochistan.
Iran has responded to the kidnapping and holding of the five border soldiers by accusing Pakistan of inactivity against its own Islamist rebels in the region, who according to Iran are themselves crossing Iran's border easily and frequently to carry out attacks.
More ominously, the Iranian government has also declared that it will cross the border with Pakistan and invade the area in which the rebels live to fight against them. It also ordered Pakistan to "secure the region" from the rebel threat or else they will claim the right to intervene to exclude the security threat from spilling into Iranian borders.
But is this truly all there is between these two countries? A major gas pipeline courses through southern Pakistan and continues into Iran seamlessly. As it winds through the harsh Balochistan territory, it also passes through the area where the rebels are.
To ensure its threats and demands are both taken seriously, an Iranian delegation is traveling to Karachi this week. The Pakistani Ambassador in Tehran has already been summoned twice to discuss the incident and the fate of the Iranian soldiers.
Pakistan of course, is very sensitive to issues of sovereignty, even in regions that are remote or semi-autonomous. It warned sternly the Iranian authorities not to attempt crossing any border line into Balochistan or elsewhere.
Pakistan seems to be particularly irked by the allegations of complacency towards its own radical rebels in the region. It further asserts that Iran has no standing on the matter, citing intensive collaboration on actions against terrorist groups in prior times.
Jaish al-Adl however, does pose a threat, however minor at this time, to Iran. They are the ones holding the soldiers and posting pictures on the internet. But are they posing demands? The question is, why are the rebels holding the soldiers? Is this just a territorial issue, or are the rebels preparing for a wider offensive inside Iran? Furthermore, there is no indication to what the intentions of the rebel groups are in regards to the Iranian soldiers.
In fact, Jaish al-Adl has made incursions in Iranian territory in the past and carried out terrorist activity. For that reason Iran had appealed to the UN security council on the matter, asking it to take note of attacks from the Balochistan rebels into Iranian territory. Last November, Jaish al - Adl claimed responsibility for the assassination of 14 Iranian border guards. That incident prompted the killing of 16 Jaish rebels, according to the Iranian agencies. Some of the rebels the Iranian forces killed were said to be drug dealers, at least according to that country's statements.
Since Iran and Pakistan are both signatories of anti-terrorism agreements, the problems remains as to Pakistan's willingness to pursue rebels in such a far away province, when it already has its hands full pursuing the Pakistani Taliban and other Islamist factions in Waziristan and in the Pakistani mainland.
For its part, Iran is doggedly pursuing the line of being left to its own device when it comes to attacks from rebels operating in Balochistan. But is the hue and cry an excuse to gain better control of an area that is vital to its pipeline, or is the agitation due to a wider plan Iran is entertaining of challenging states that are Sunni ruled?
Some may consider this border dispute similar to the one that caused the 8 year conflict between Iran and Iraq. Most historians are agreed that one of the bloodiest conflict in history was caused just by the same concerns about border breaches, and the inimical feelings intrinsic in countries that are sectarianly different. But the equation has changed: both Pakistan and Iran are now armed with nuclear weapons, even though Iran's capability is limited in comparison with Pakistan's own arsenal.
Op-Ed
Partial sources; Al Aarabiya/ Eastern Tribune: 2.19.14
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