THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY GROUP OBTAINS AN ANTITANK MISSILE. ARE SYRIA'S NEIGHBORS RAISING THE STAKES?

This photo provided by the anti-government activist group Aleppo Media Center (AMC), which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting, shows multiple rocket launchers fire Grad missiles by the Syrian rebels as they shell the government forces positions, in Aleppo, Syria, Monday April 14, 2014. (AP Photo/Aleppo Media Center, AMC)



For the first time since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, the indigenous rebels, who fly under the common flag of Free Syrian Army, have obtained a piece of machinery that could help make a difference in their fight. 

For nearly three years, Free Syrian Army rebels have had to fight with little more than conventional weapons and civilian arms, while they had to contend with helicopter gunships and Syrian jets showering bullets and bombs from above.  

Now, however, they have received, from source unknown, an antitank missile system, which could help them at least contrast the Syrian army with something more substantial. A first video of the system is shown in the link below.  All the systems believed to now be in the hands of the moderate rebels are US made. 

http://youtu.be/kYNzkYPRico 

But why has the Free Syria group obtained the antitank missile battery? or better still from whom?

The suspicions, of course, first fall on the US, who has so far denied any involvement and won't even name names or places, as far as the antitank missile battery is concerned. 

But there are two countries who are very vested in the Syrian civil war: Saudi Arabia and Turkey.  Both of these countries have either inimical stances and long grudges, or political and strategical advantages from seeing Assad fall. And both are frequent recipients of US arms and weaponry.

Lately, Assad's army seemed to have regained much of the ground it lost to both Syrian rebels and foreign Islamist groups, who have usurped much of the civil war for their own gain.  The momentum has shifted greatly in Assad's favor, and just this week, the dictator was able to reclaim a strategic part of Homs, which could reverse his fortunes very quickly if the rebels are not able to stop him. 

So the sudden appearance on the ground of such heavy artillery, so to speak, is somewhat suspicious.  Do neighboring countries want to quicken the conflict?  Do they hope that the missile battery and maybe other supplies will return the balance in favor of the rebels? 

There are no certainties in a war where there are more shadow armies, operatives, and rogue groups that one can count.  For sure is the fact that such weapons, as the one obtained by the Free Syrian Army group, have been sold to Saudi Arabia, but also to Turkey.  

However, Saudi Arabia received a large cache of weapons at the end of last year.  For that reason, most people suspect that Saudi Arabia has grown impatient with the West's inaction in the Syrian civil war and maybe has made a decision to intervene indirectly to hasten Assad's fall. But all of these are conjectures without answers.  What is certain is that the conflict is and has long been, internationalized, with Iran and Russia providing Russian and Chinese made weapons to Assad, and the West and part of the Middle East supplying the moderate Syrian rebels.

It is also of note, that in 2014 the US is supposed to enact a plan to support the Free Syria rebels and other non Al Qaeda groups by furnishing both logistics and training, a plan that had long been thought of as a viable alternative to a direct US intervention on Syrian soil.  One thing is for sure: the bone of contention that is Syria will not be let go so easily from any side.  

That however translates in a longer conflict, and in an even bloodier outcome. Just today, the news that Assad is using barrel bombs in cities where both rebels and innocent civilians are present, gave the world a further clue to the magnitude of the atrocities commited by the Assad regime. 

But let's go back to the antitank missiles for a moment.  Apparently, if there is such heavy artillery channeled to the moderate groups by a Middle Eastern country, such distribution must be done with prior consensus from the US.  The relatively new weapons also would indicate that they are part of recent shipments to whichever country has then offered them to the rebel groups, and are not old weapons that have been channeled from other countries, possibly by the Al Qaeda affiliated groups. The US therefore, could be simply using one of Syria's neighboring countries as a proxy for such distribution.

Such weapons, if there is more than one as some relate, would mark a significant shift in policy, since the US so far has refused to provide any heavy artillery for fear they might get into the hands of radical islamist groups. 

Just this week, Saudi Intelligence chief Prince Bandar has resigned, forcing the Saudis to name a successor.  That alone signals a change in direction in the Saudi's commitment to the ouster of Bashar al Assad.  Bandar was very committed to see regime change in Syria. But his commitment was too overt and too vocal some have said. In addition, Saudi Arabia's considerable rapport with the US was suddenly diminished when President Obama restored communications with Iran.  

Bandar's push and his contention that the US should be dealt differently because it did not actively participate in helping the Syrian rebels topple Assad, have placed him in a position that had become both uncomfortable and embarassing for the Saudis. 

Whoever follows Prince Bandar as chief of intelligence, it will probably be a more moderate chief, or at least one who will not lock horns with the West to try and force an intervention in Syria. But it might also be a moderation borne of the understanding that the US is now going to actively, albeit covertly, inject itself in the Syrian conflict with other than just diplomacy.

 Op-Ed

 Source: Arutz Sheva/ Huffpost/Daily Star: 4.17.14