photo: AP
That Egypt's revolution is slowly dying thanks to a new military coup and subsequent insertion of General Al Sisi as the shoe-in for premiership in the soon to be held elections is not in doubt. That the Brotherhood has been extinguished very much is.
Even though a good number of older Egyptians never liked the change wrought by the revolution and often remarked that "it was better when it was worse" and pined for the return of Mubarak, it seems a new section of the population is now very much hoping tha the military rule holds, because the last year has been so difficult and violent, they are now ready to forfeit whatever freedom they thought they had gained through the revolution.
But the chips are not all down yet. The truth is that the Brotherhood has not given up its dream of turning Egypt into an Islamic republic in the guise of Iran, and it is very much willing to associate itself with other rebel and terrorist group to return to power.
Although many lament that the Brotherhood was ousted illegally, many of those who do are supporters, since the rest are very well aware that the Brotherhood was operating to change the Constitution and the power of the executive to eliminate the possibility of anyone else ruling in the future.
The military's heavy handed response to the Brotherhood, and its renewed ban on the group, has brought back old hatred but also old alliances. The trumped up charges against Morsi and the Brotherhood have only inflamed the followers of the Brotherhood and its sympathizers. There is however, some truth in the accusations that the Brotherhood had forged alliances with foreign rebel or terrorist group to secure itself from possible routing from the power structure, or worse from a ban. After all, Hamas has always been an offshoot of the Brotherhood itself.
But Morsi has been accused of outrageous things, some true, most not. That sort of cracking down is ominous and should not be disregarded. Even if people now hail Al Sisi as a saviour, the generals and whatever incarnation they may in the future government of Egypt will not offset the fact that their rule has come at a heavy price for their opponents and their followers.
Morsi, however, has become emboldened by the realization that his release will not be soon in coming. Faced with almost certain imprisonment and even possible execution, Morsi is now making his last stance, defying both his and the Brotherhood's own contention that they have or had no links to terrorist or subversive activity and calling his followers to wage all out revolution.
Although he has called for "peaceful revolution", his call will probably not be interpreted literally. There is however, no doubt that the Brotherhood will fight, and fight till the end. The Brotherhood has been fighting in one form of the other since the 1940's and survived decades long bans and the military's persecution.
From the dock in the latest round of his trial, Morsi exhorted his followers to " continue your peaceful revolution". But the Brotherhood has nearly stopped all of its weekly protests, even as more people die, and the military consolidates its power. And what that means is ominous.
The biggest item in the trial against Morsi is the charge of allowing 130 prisoners, most of them belonging to terrorist and rebel groups Hamas and Hezbollah, to escape Egyptian prisons. The prison break is a clear indication in the military's mind, that Morsi and the rest of the accused, who went on to form the bulk of the leadership in the last election, were deeply connected and heavily involved in each other's terrorist activities.
In the meantime, the almost feverish support of Al Sisi has reached delusional levels. People are writing songs for him and hailing him as a saviour. TV networks add to the hysteria will round the clock programming that glorifies the nearly anointed leader.
What is more baffling is that some of the staunchest believers in the revolution, and revolution actors, have now completely embraced the wily general. This type of countrywide sympathy for military rule is to say the least, bone chilling. People are saluting in the streets with military like salutes to show their support of the generals. If this reminds foreigners of the period before the Nazis obtained absolute power in Germany, it would not be without reason. Fear, some say, plays strange tricks on the mind.
For their part, the military has already forged a new constitution that will be voted on in the elections that give women equal rights, and bans political parties that represent a religion, thereby curtailing any possibility of the country being ruled as an Islamic republic.
In the political struggle that has characterized the past year, a new group has staked its claim. The name of the group is Tamarud. This group was fundamentally responsible for reversing the Brotherhood's ascent to power. Now Tamarud is pitting itself against Hamas, and together with Fatah, they are trying to shut out both the Brotherhood and Hamas. There is no reason to believe that Hamas and the Brotherhood are not intrinsically and ideologically tied. But as they both try to reiterate their commitment to peaceful rebellion, the reality of Hamas is that they are all about armed resistance. In the Gaza strip alone, there are 20,000 Hamas armed rebels.
Tamarud however, is more than just a movement to minimize the Brotherhood's bid for absolute power in Egypt. They have an ideological base that shows that they too aspire to much greater things that a temporary reshuffling of the power structure in their country. The Tamarud in fact, has made noticeable in roads in the Palestinian territories, and have been allegedly persecuted by Hamas for their activities. They also want to become a party with inclusion in the Parliament.
Hamas, of course has asserted that Tamarud is nothing more than Israeli secret service masquerading as some form of grass roots movement.
Tamarud asserts that Hamas and the Brotherhood are so intertwined, that Morsi had the intention of relinquishing the Sinai to Hamas, and that only the military's intervention has stopped that plan.
Lately however, some Tamarud members have had second thoughts. A small part of the membership seems to be wavering after the military's last crackdown. As much as they want the Brotherhood gone and shackled, they also are becoming restive about the military's absolute rule, at least for the time being. The group's offshoot, the Tamarud 2, is in fact composed of those people who seek to limit the military's power, and preclude a return to a Mubarak style of governing.
The Tamarud 2 members also believe that some of the founding members of the original Tamarud were state security plants, a charge the Tamarud proper denies. Tamarud 2 also contend that Tamarud have falsified anti-Morsi signatures a year ago. The Tamarud said they had collected 22 million signatures, while the Tamarud 2 leaders are saying that they only know of 8.5 million. Accusations are now flying fast and furious between the group and its offshoot.
Tamarud 2 for its part has started a campaign against military rule, pitting themselves against the military regime in a way that could easily spell their demise. They say they have 2 million signatures already, but many are doubting this number.
Tamarud 2, then, is part of a fractioned opposition, but one that is feeble and not well defined. They call themselves anti-Mubarak, but not all of them members of Tamarud 2 were anti-Morsi. In many ways, it seems almost to be buyer's remorse, or in this case, seller's remorse, since the original Tamarud sought the dismissal of Morsi.
For now, Egypt's course seems clear. But the fact remains that the military has returned Egypt to its previous incarnation through brutal repression, including the killing and imprisonment of thousands of Brotherhood members.
Op-Ed
Sources: Wikipedia/ChicagoTribune/AlJazeera/CBN: 2.22.14
From the dock in the latest round of his trial, Morsi exhorted his followers to " continue your peaceful revolution". But the Brotherhood has nearly stopped all of its weekly protests, even as more people die, and the military consolidates its power. And what that means is ominous.
The biggest item in the trial against Morsi is the charge of allowing 130 prisoners, most of them belonging to terrorist and rebel groups Hamas and Hezbollah, to escape Egyptian prisons. The prison break is a clear indication in the military's mind, that Morsi and the rest of the accused, who went on to form the bulk of the leadership in the last election, were deeply connected and heavily involved in each other's terrorist activities.
In the meantime, the almost feverish support of Al Sisi has reached delusional levels. People are writing songs for him and hailing him as a saviour. TV networks add to the hysteria will round the clock programming that glorifies the nearly anointed leader.
What is more baffling is that some of the staunchest believers in the revolution, and revolution actors, have now completely embraced the wily general. This type of countrywide sympathy for military rule is to say the least, bone chilling. People are saluting in the streets with military like salutes to show their support of the generals. If this reminds foreigners of the period before the Nazis obtained absolute power in Germany, it would not be without reason. Fear, some say, plays strange tricks on the mind.
For their part, the military has already forged a new constitution that will be voted on in the elections that give women equal rights, and bans political parties that represent a religion, thereby curtailing any possibility of the country being ruled as an Islamic republic.
In the political struggle that has characterized the past year, a new group has staked its claim. The name of the group is Tamarud. This group was fundamentally responsible for reversing the Brotherhood's ascent to power. Now Tamarud is pitting itself against Hamas, and together with Fatah, they are trying to shut out both the Brotherhood and Hamas. There is no reason to believe that Hamas and the Brotherhood are not intrinsically and ideologically tied. But as they both try to reiterate their commitment to peaceful rebellion, the reality of Hamas is that they are all about armed resistance. In the Gaza strip alone, there are 20,000 Hamas armed rebels.
Tamarud however, is more than just a movement to minimize the Brotherhood's bid for absolute power in Egypt. They have an ideological base that shows that they too aspire to much greater things that a temporary reshuffling of the power structure in their country. The Tamarud in fact, has made noticeable in roads in the Palestinian territories, and have been allegedly persecuted by Hamas for their activities. They also want to become a party with inclusion in the Parliament.
Hamas, of course has asserted that Tamarud is nothing more than Israeli secret service masquerading as some form of grass roots movement.
Tamarud asserts that Hamas and the Brotherhood are so intertwined, that Morsi had the intention of relinquishing the Sinai to Hamas, and that only the military's intervention has stopped that plan.
Lately however, some Tamarud members have had second thoughts. A small part of the membership seems to be wavering after the military's last crackdown. As much as they want the Brotherhood gone and shackled, they also are becoming restive about the military's absolute rule, at least for the time being. The group's offshoot, the Tamarud 2, is in fact composed of those people who seek to limit the military's power, and preclude a return to a Mubarak style of governing.
The Tamarud 2 members also believe that some of the founding members of the original Tamarud were state security plants, a charge the Tamarud proper denies. Tamarud 2 also contend that Tamarud have falsified anti-Morsi signatures a year ago. The Tamarud said they had collected 22 million signatures, while the Tamarud 2 leaders are saying that they only know of 8.5 million. Accusations are now flying fast and furious between the group and its offshoot.
Tamarud 2 for its part has started a campaign against military rule, pitting themselves against the military regime in a way that could easily spell their demise. They say they have 2 million signatures already, but many are doubting this number.
Tamarud 2, then, is part of a fractioned opposition, but one that is feeble and not well defined. They call themselves anti-Mubarak, but not all of them members of Tamarud 2 were anti-Morsi. In many ways, it seems almost to be buyer's remorse, or in this case, seller's remorse, since the original Tamarud sought the dismissal of Morsi.
For now, Egypt's course seems clear. But the fact remains that the military has returned Egypt to its previous incarnation through brutal repression, including the killing and imprisonment of thousands of Brotherhood members.
Op-Ed
Sources: Wikipedia/ChicagoTribune/AlJazeera/CBN: 2.22.14
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