The latest news from Istanbul paint a muddled picture: Erdogan is putting out, or trying to, all the fires before the ensuing elections. But he might not be doing as good a job as he thinks he is.
Erdogan made no secret, or at least partially denied, of being a fundamentalist, although many people were not convinced. A few years later, Erdogan's mask might just have completely fallen off.
Amidst protests, and some pretty hefty challenges from his opponents, Erdogan is trying to silence both corporate interests that are siding against him, and other opposing forces to his renewed candidacy.
A power grab it is. When Erdogan took power, he emasculated the Army, although some say that his efforts might not have been as successful as he thinks. He changed the constitution, enraging secular Turkmen who have been faithful to the country's founding father, Kemal Ataturk.
That Erdogan was going to go his own way, everyone suspected or at least surmised. He even dared to speak up against the semi mythical Ataturk, and called him a drunk and a womanizer, which for a Muslim is a pretty definite insult. To make things worse, his wife wore an abbayeh from the beginning, upsetting those who followed Ataturk's move away from the orthodox observance of the veil.
Be as it may, that many Turkmen see Ataturk's legacy as a step away from Islam, maybe a step too far for some, the majority of Turks do not wish to follow in the footsteps of more radicalized Islamic countries, and fear foremost the destiny that has befallen Egypt.
But the elections are coming, fast. Erdogan knows that his timing is poor. And lo and behold even his own party, the AKP is turning against him. Many in his country see him as a tyrant, and one who will only worsen if he is allowed to continue to hold power.
Interestingly enough, one of Erdogan's greatest foes is a self exiled preacher, by the name of Fethullah Gulen, who lives in the United States. He wields enormous power, even as is lives abroad, among the Turkish constituency, merely in virtue of his religious credentials.
Although Gulen left Turkey under the dark shadow of wanting to implement an Islamist republic, he is followed by many who consider themselves moderate and forward thinking, since he professes to be a promoter of higher education.
Wikileaks however, threw a pretty bleak light on Gulen. He is suspected of being entrenched and leading a radical Islamist group. That group, or network, has very large economic interests and holdings in Turkey.
What is ironic then, is that while the people in the square are agitating for more freedom, and less strict Islamic observance, such as prohibitions from drink and dress codes, the true challenge in Erdogan's campaign comes from even more radicalized groups and constituents than himself.
The group Gulen heads had been instrumental in Erdogan's reelection in 2002. Their alliance had allowed Erdogan smooth sailing. Now however, probably impatient with Erdogan's slow implementation of more radical adherence to Sharia and Islamic tents, Gulen's group wants out.
What is truly behind Gulen's group however, masked under Islamic faith, is a push to get a bigger share of the economic pie and power. Anyone attempting at unveiling the group's intentions is also quickly silenced. A book against the group was quickly banned and the author accused of being a terrorist, all with Erdogan's consent.
The Gulen group has its power base not only in economic and business interests, but also in the justice system, the armed forces and the intelligence services. For someone who wants to portray himself as a forward thinking, education fostering spiritual leader, the incredible range and ramification of his group leave little doubt as to his true intentions.
As the elections draw nearer, the Turkish constituency will have to make a very clear choice for democracy or risk an even more authoritarian rule than the one governing now.
Partial Source : Spiegel/ 8.22.13
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