If anyone harbored doubts, or hope, that the newly elected president would steer Iran on a different course, hopes were shattered today as Rowhani reiterated that his country would not even consider reducing or halting its nuclear program.
Rowhani had been the hope of some, as he was perceived to be a moderate amongst the hawkish theocratic elite that dominates Iranian politics. But reading more on Rowhani would have revealed that his ideology falls neatly in line with that of the theocrats and might even surpass the histrionics of his predecessor when it comes to keeping a hardline.
Rowhani, in fact, had advocated that demonstrators in 1999 be put to death just for taking to the streets. That fact alone, whether it was bluster or not, should make people reconsider the notion that he is a moderate.
Restarting negotiations with Iran then will be much the same cat and mouse game it has always been. Iran intends, in the end, to become a player in international politics by acquiring nuclear power, and if not defensively, even offensively, plan their future armed with nuclear weapons.
That Iran might have undertaken the nuclear program with Iraq's fate in mind, no one doubts. It seems these days, the only way to avoid being invaded or at least avoid a concerted attack for whatever cause, is to have just such weapons, which puts the whole future of the world in peril. If countries see nuclear armaments as the only way to escape dominance from stronger powers, then there will be more and more countries that will seek them.
But more importantly, one has to examine exactly what Iran wants to achieve with its nuclear program. Will it be a chip with which to play a strategic game in the Middle East? If Syria's debacle is anything to go by, the answer is yes. But more ominously, will Iran use its nuclear power to change the balance of power in the MIddle East?
Very few doubt that Iran has pacific intentions when it comes to the state of Israel. There is the very real possibility, that Iran will try to play a role, shouldered by the likes of Russia and China, in a world where the balance of power is neatly shifting, in bringing the state of Isreal under fire. For many Shi'a powers, the existence of Israel is a reality that must come to an end. Even if not neatly spelled out, as in the times of Ahmadinejad, the thought nevertheless will remain in the Iranian's elite power structure.
The fact that Rowhani is amenable to granting the IAEA greater inspection rights, however, is a conciliatory tone. But will that conciliation come as a move to muddle the waters, and fool everyone into believing that Iran is not considering long term plans of war? If that is so, then why would Iran's ambassador threaten to kidnap Obama's daughter? And why did Iran immediately order that its cohorts in Iraq attack US interests, including the Baghdad Embassy after President Obama threatened action against Syria?
What seems more plausible in the charade of changing its tune, is that Rowhani wants to try to have its crippling sanctions lifted, but without conceding an inch as far as Iran's nuclear program. They have learned a valuable lesson from Russian politics, where force is met with force, and the reasoning is that only concessions will obtain concessions, if at all.
Iran, of course, feels it is part and parcel of Middle East politics. And its unconditional support of both Hezbollah and Syria speaks much louder than its apparent willingness to show a more moderate face. In other words, it's not what is said in regards to international commissions and inspectors, but what truly goes on behind the curtain that people should use when trying to divine Iran's 'new' course.
Partial Source : France 24/ 9.10.13
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