A small group of islands, contested between Japan and China are becoming a catalyst for possible conflict. For now, that conflict resides in the South China sea and sees Taiwan, Japan and China squabble over the islands.
To be fair, the islands should belong, by proximity, to Taiwan. But Taiwan is not free to determine its own will on the subject without being accused of separatist aspirations. As far as Japan is concerned, it is furthest from all three, and will have a dog of a time trying to enforce the issue, but it is adamant about their claim to the islands.
But as is the case with most countries, loss of face must be avoided at all cost. So Japan will go at it, and China will join in without hesitation.
The truth of the matter is that the islands are important for far more than their geographical position or loss of prestige. There are natural resources at stake, and of course, pride and tradition.
How far back however, must one go to figure out who truly can lay claim to the islands? And does it even matter now?
Notwithstanding historical and geographic concerns, China just this week announced that it is preparing an Air Defence Identification Zone in the East China sea. In other words, a no-fly zone of sorts over the islands. By laying claim to an air zone, it could then claim the sea too.
To answer that, the US sent military planes in a joint Nippon-American military exercise, although President Obama did add that commercial aircraft should respect the no fly zone in an ancillary statement.
What that means is pretty clear. The planes the US sent over were B-52, in other words nuclear delivery aircraft. Hands off Taiwan, is what it means, and the straits of the South China sea too. And that's a very strong message.
South Korea has gingerly joined in the military exercise after the US show of 'solidarity' by sending some of their own aircraft. China, not to be outclassed, sent in fighter jets to escort both Japanese and American planes.
Frayed nerves be damned. If there is even an accidental mishap, what will then happen to Asia? Is the US and her allies ready to confront the behemoth that China has become? Is this a reminder to China that it should not entertain notions of expansion or land grab even if it is the biggest 'fish' in that sea?
China does have a problem in the South China sea, however. A natural barrier of islands big and small and some countries, like South Korea, are either controlled or allies of the US, blocking any naval route it could envision or need. What China is trying to do too, is to expand its sphere of influence and sovereignty beyond its natural boundaries, just as the US has done with Hawaii, Puerto Rico and other zones. But the problem is that China, by expanding, risks literally stumbling on its neighbors.
The newly elected Chinese premier, although taken largely by economic reform, is showing the will to test the hardline military approach that China envisions for it to be the undisputed power in its corner of the world, and maybe even further than that.
Another problem is China's wish to 'beat down' Japan, or at least to cower it in retaliation for Japan's invasion of China in WWII. China does have issues with letting go of history, although it was a brutal history. China is driven by historical precedents. If the same held true for the US, we would be warring with Germany and Japan until the end of times. It also helps to have that precedent to convince its people of the justness of pursuing the hardline with Japan. Japan however, is all agog by the US show of support. The country is, after all, a very efficient and modern military country that could withstand a conflict with China. The other question is, will Taiwan be emboldened by the latest developments?
The future, however, shows that the US will have to do with China what it did with Russia: to be the counterbalance to growing world powers. And that means that the new military frontier for the US is the Pacific and South China sea, with station being readied in Australia and other ally countries. Even Vietnam and Singapore will become the theatre for American bases and stations. This system of checks and balances, if you will, is called by historian Christopher Clark, a "system of bipolar stability."
The importance of the straits in the South China sea goes beyond geopolitical and military strategy. Just like Suez, an enormous amount of shipping goes through the channels. For now, the best hope is that the bipolar system holds, and that no one decides to act in vengeance or retaliation.
Op-ED
source : Spiegel international/ 12.3.13
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