Although for a few years Al Qaeda was believed to be regrouping, and struggling with both finances and logistics, that may no longer be the case.
One example of how Al Qaeda has survived the international operations against it, is to delegate powers to local affiliated groups, which are now wreaking havoc in the African continent and Asia.
Iraq is one such case. Violence, especially along sectarian lines, has reached an unsustainable level. Just this week, the US announced that it was selling drones to Iraq to combat the growing menace of Al Qaeda's groups, which are causing daily deaths in constant bombing and other attacks.
One of the reasons why Al Qaeda has been able to regroup so efficiently is that it has a solid base in Yemen, from where it not only manages operations but also gains recruits.
According to the latest observations, Al Qaeda's ranks have swelled, a fact that is very significant, especially in light of its infiltrations in places like Syria and the Sinai, among others.
Recent intelligence is also showing that Al Qaeda is turning its aim toward the US again. The Yemeni based group that is now pivotal to Al Qaeda's operations is the same that almost succeeded in downing an airliner when it sent a teenager with underwear full of plastic explosives in 2009.
The problem with trying to decimate the group in Yemen through drone strikes, is that a lot of firepower often results in zero result or worse, in the death of innocent bystanders. It is a very inefficient method of thinning the upper echelons of the group, or to retaliate for Al Qaeda attacks against American interests or citizens.
One of the examples of the foothold Al Qaeda is gaining in the Middle East is exemplified by the heavy presence in Syria, where more than 11,000 members of Al Qaeda affiliate groups are vying for control of important land bridges with Iraq in the East and to the South and North with Syria's neighboring countries.
The Syria presence is critical because it shows how Al Qaeda is able to mobilize people of very different nationalities and backgrounds to join in the fighting in a foreign land. In Syria, even EU citizens have been found, in good numbers, people who will return to their European country once the conflict is ended.
But more worrisome is the heavy Al Qaeda presence in Syria as a harbinger of better access not only to the MIddle east, Saudi Arabia, and northern Africa, but also to European countries where many soft targets and American targets are within easy reach.
In addition, the EU citizens joining in the fight, will most probably return to Europe with knowledge of explosives and warfare that could enable them to easily slip out of authorities' radar and use that knowledge to carry out terrorist acts.
Another development that could spell trouble, is the almost complete surrender of operations to local groups and even single individuals. In one of the latest propaganda writings, Al Zawahiri himself exhorted Muslims worldwide to take matter into their own hands. The example of the English soldier butchered near his barracks in May might just be the beginning of lone wolf terrorist acts, which could destabilize security just as much as a wider ranging terrorist act.
The issue however, as far the focus of the group goes, is that they are concentrating on repeated and pervasive sectarian acts of violence. In Iraq almost all violence is against Shia, who are in the majority, by Al Qaeda affiliated groups who are always Sunni.
In Iraq, Sunni terrorists are not just trying to regain power as they had under Saddam Hussein, but to obtain separation of lands in the Iraqi territory, just as they are trying to do in Syria. The re-drawing of borders along earlier, or ancient maps is one of the objectives of Al Qaeda.
The objective some say, is to re-create the caliphate. But after the focus shifts from Syria or Egypt, or even Iraq, where will Al Qaeda move to?
Op-Ed
Partial Source : CNN/12.28.13
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