The disaster that is the Central African Republic manifested itself long ago. It began to slide into chaos however only a few weeks ago. France has tried and will try to bring it back to some sembalnce of normality. It prompt intervention this month all but halted a dangerous rift between rebel forces. But questions now have been raised as to France's ability to sustain such a pervasive effort in the small republic.
In what could have been a descent into hell, the C.A.R. was instead saved by the French's prompt dispatch of military forces to stop a Rwanda-like genocide. But France is not the prosperous country it was a decade ago.
With an agenda that sees its presence in three or more AFrican states, and an intensive effort in Mali, France needs help: a lot of help and it is looking principally to Germany to fill in the gap. But questions remain as to whether other states will join what the French are calling "humanitarian intervention". Germany cannot constitutionally justify joining the French on the ground with troops.
The C.A.R. is a relatively small country. But the potential for mayhem is enormous. Before the French landed in the C.A.R., the killing had already begun to the tune of 500 in a few days.
With a mission that is probably going to tally around half a billion dollars or more, the initiative could seriously undermine France's efforts to get out of the economic slump it finds itself in.
France is also seeking help from EU battle groups, which are supposed to bolster just such kind of humanitarian efforts, but have failed to see action since they were formed.
At stake in the C.A.R., as is in many parts of Africa at this time, is the very balance that allowed these democracies, however hobbling, to exist. The Seleka rebels, who deposed the president this year, are Muslim, and they are clamoring to change the C.A.R. into a Sharia state. This kind of development is a harbinger of future battles in Africa, and they must be addressed. The unrest in the Central African REpublic, and the potential for violence and murder is created when opposing rebel factions run along religious lines.
The first item on the agenda of France's military personnel is to disarm the rebels on both sides, Seleka Muslims and anti-seleka Christians.
France's meddling in the African continent is not always looked upon with kindness, and it should not be. In the past, a good portion of Africa was under the protection or supervision of France, in a way that bolstered corruption and cronyism.
The new agenda might very well be one with clear humanitarian intent, but there is no way to tell whether France's efforts will bear fruit in a way constructive to the African country itself or to the benefit of France. For now, the issue is avoiding mayhem and killing. The long term influence France will exert on the C.A.R., whether financial, or political or military, is still to be assessed.
Germany however, is certainly not going to join the fight. They will however, offer material and materiel support, but probably not in the amounts France would wish.
Things do look shaky for this intervention in Africa There is not a lot of overt support for France's mission and it remains to be seen if the EU will come to France's aid.
It is however, time, that the EU decides what to do and how to employ its battle forces. If France fails in the C.A.R., further actions will be needed in the future, that will undoubtedly require much larger contingents, and much more funding.
Op-Ed
Partial Source: 12.21.13
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