As more and more groups form under the aegis of greater Al Qaeda, the terrorist 'alma mater' of innumerable splinter rebel factions, knowing or guessing what their actions will be becomes increasingly difficult.
One example of the increasing autonomy of decentralized groups that are affiliated with Al Qaeda is ISIS, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The rebel group has taken over, and usurped the Free Syria movement, in an attempt at uniting territories from Iraq and Syria with the purpose of forming an Ottoman state.
When Al Qaeda's number one, Ayman Al Zawahiri tried to reign in ISIS, and asked in no uncertain terms that ISIS withdraw from certain parts of Iraq, the group's response was that they would stand their ground and their turf as long as 'blood still ran in their veins".
Al Qaeda as was known in the days preceding and immediately after the bombing of New York's Twin Towers, with separate nuclei strictly adhering to the authority and influence of Osama bin Laden, is now no more.
The decentralization, and the increasing autonomy of the groups, and the diversity of their specific agendas have all but curtailed the power of the elders in the Al Qaeda organization. What is worse, although most of it is local at this time, their m.o. is even bloodier and more ruthless than that of the organization which spawned them.
What this means to those who are trying to prevent terrorist attacks and to understand the m.o. of the nascent groups, is that a clear plan and a quick analysis are both insufficient and in some cases unobtainable.
This splintering however, does not preclude that the groups could unite under the same banner across nations if they deem the cause to be close to their own objectives and beliefs.
But that same splintering is also causing conflict among rebel groups. A typical example is Syria, where ISIS is engaged in a deathly fight with other Al Qaeda affiliates, such as Al Nusra front, over turf.
For these reasons, some believe that some of these groups should not be considered part of Al Qaeda, but as separate entities engaged in a specific locale. Those groups who are vying for supremacy within their own geographical boundaries, or are helping abroad with the intent of establishing a shari'a state should be separated and discerned from how Al Qaeda affiliates and Al Qaeda proper work and what it aims at, since Al Qaeda's objective remains to destroy and attack the West.
One group that is affiliated closely to Al Qaeda and the mission of former leader Osama bin Laden is Al Qaeda in Yemen or Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. This group is remaining faithful to the mission of overturning Saudi Arabia's house of Saud and attacking the US and the West. And for that reason alone, they should be the main focus in antiterrorist activities.
The danger then comes from considering local groups completely local, but also considering all groups potentially dangerous outside their borders.
The problem with terrorist groups, whether they are local 'start ups' or part of a larger foreign groups, is the opportunity offered by instability. All Al Qaeda affiliates or local groups are strengthened by the ability to intervene in a situation of unrest or war.
Source : NYT/ 1.27.14
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