The deal signed just this week between Iran and many of the world's most powerful nations has been hailed as groundbreaking, and not a least bit less controversial too.
Cries are already rising from Congress, where military hawks and supporters of the Israeli state are condemning the deal as a shortsighted, hastily arranged deal that will not prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons by employing its deceptive tactics or relying on close allies to complete what the deal aims to curb.
On the other hand, both Israel and the Saudi royals are unappeased by a deal that falls short of the solution they wished to see implemented: an all out destruction of the facilities that are potentially able to produce fissile material for bellic use.
In any case, even with Congress trying to find a way to place the proverbial stone on the road, and Israel complaining on the sidelines, the Iran-nuke deal has, for now, all but frozen Israel's ability to strike militarily in Iran.
Israel's military capabilities are good, at least as far aerial delivery of ordnance. The problem however, is that to get to Iran, Israel has to cross the airspace of countries that are not in the least bit friendly to her, and which, even if they are not capable to stop the aerial flotilla as would be the case with Iraq, they nevertheless can alert Iran of their passage. Iran, however, is well furnished with defensive capabilities that can strike and down a bomb carrying plane.
To make matters worse, Iran has planted its nuclear facilities in some cases deep into the ground, so that only a massive bunker buster bomb could do the job. Israel has only one plane that can deliver a bunker busting bomb due to its massive size.
But the issue here has more to do with Iran's close allies, and what they can give Iran in terms of raw materials and what they can do with the material once obtained, than any of the facilities by themselves or the deals struck with the powerful 5.
Bibi Netanyahu however, is as eager as ever to exert pressure on Iran by reiterating that his government is not bound by the agreement. However, his bluster might be toothless. With Iraq in the throes of sectarian turmoil, and the MIddle East engulfed in civil wars and other strife, Israel is in a very solitary spot, even after the Saudis extended they hand.
The nuclear deal, however, is somewhat limited in scope, making the hawks and the Israeli ministers sound somewhat correct in their assessment. In fact, the deal is good only for a short period of time, in which Iran must make good on its promise to produce material only employable for domestic use, in exchange for 7 billion dollars in lifted sanctions.
From some quarters, voices have raised the objections that this tactic is only a stall, after which, Iran will just continue to do as it wants, and renege on the projected extension of this deal into the future, which would assure Iran's compliance in perpetuity.
The one thing that is positive on the heels of the signed nuclear deal, is the fact that the ball is in Iran's court. With mounting pressure from all sides to comply, and the economic incentive provided, many see the possibility that a mollified Iran could consider entering the international arena, not just as a powerful saber rattler, but as a country wishing to recapture its past glory and reopen relations with the Western world.
Op_Ed
Source : France 24/ 11.25.13
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