Revolutionary new techniques, like shale oil drilling and underwater wells, have upended the oil market.
The US for one, together with Canada, has gone from being woefully dependent on foreign oil, to being an exporter. But for how long?
Soon, new oil drilling and exploration will take place in the North pole and Greenland, they say, opening a whole new continent(s) of possibilities.
But what is all this doing to the global economy? Shifts are coming and some could be earth shattering.
All this hustle and bustle and fussing over shale oil and shale gas, is in danger of being overshadowed by a stark reality: oil wells are drying up. What reserves oil producing countries had, have already reached or surpassed peak capacity.
And if oil runs out, the whole world could come to a veritable standstill.
Some researchers put oil peak, as close as 2020. Even the current aggressive exploration of tar sands will not fill the gap of dwindling oil reserves.
Exploratory agencies, such as the US Geological Survey and the International Energy Agency are very sanguine about it however, asserting that unexplored of unfound reserves will soon fill in the widening gap of shrinking oil well production. However, these assertions lack substantive evidence, and could amount to no more than 'wishful thinking'.
Because the more industrialized nations are heavily reliant on fossil fuels, it is they that are in danger of economic duress. And such duress, if encountered, will be then reflected onto all other countries.
The price of oil, if and when it does start to become scarce, is bound to skyrocket. Even a small spike in price can upend economic fortunes, as has happened in the US in 2008. Even wider swings in price could cause economic collapse.
In fact, the only way to maintain economic stability is to have oil production grow at almost the same rate as the growth in GDP, an impossible feat considering the finite quality of oil deposits.
Some scientists contend that the edge of the cliff, in oil production, had already been reached in 2005. As far as shale gas substituting for oil, that might never happen. The production of shale gas can drop as much as 60-90% after one year.
One of the ways to curb such dependance on fossil fuels is to reduce the massive and pervasive use of fertilizers.
But the scientists also warn that oil is not the only material that is reaching a critical point. many others, like coal, phosphorus, uranium and minerals have been almost tapped out or soon will.
It is even more critical then, "to design a roadmap toward a post carbon economy" asserts Sir David King, the former scientific adviser to the UK government.
Source : Raw Story/ 11.20.13
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