The Iran nuclear program debacle has put some strain in the century old relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US. But as the dust settles, and a deal promoted by the US and tabled in recent talks brakes down short of an agreement, that relationship might reveal itself to be much more durable than it looks.
Although Iran has signed an agreement with the IAEA, the deal with the US seems more and more elusive, and one has to wonder if the recent spat with the Saudi regents has anything to do with it.
When Iran sat down in talks with the US, there was the hope that the meeting would reach a groundbreaking agreement. For the first time in more than a quarter century, Iran and the US were close to resuming a relationship that had been violently truncated in 1979.
But many forces were at stake that doomed the talks from the beginnng. Iran wanted to concede little although it had promised to come to the table with the earnest intention of seeking a solution, betraying therefore, that it is not yet ready to give up its cat and mouse games, which has kept Iran in the economic straits it is in now. On the other hand, Iran's support of the Syrian dictator, and its willingness to be a player in the conflict has greatly angered Saudi Arabia, a Sunni dominant nation, that sees Iran as one of its archenemies. And last but not least, Israel's vehemence in rejecting any solution with Iran that would in some way preclude its ability to intervene militarily in Iran and the immediate areas of the widening Syrian civil war theatre might have had a chilling effect. The icing on the cake of course, was Hollande's pointed objections of the allowances to be granted Iran under the deal that was the centerpiece of the talks.
Given all that, it was no surprise that the agreement never happened. But all the posturing and volleys being thrown from the different parties might be little more than a rearranging of position among countries that for the most part have always been on the same side.
Bandar Bin Sultan, the previous Ambassador to the United States, has recently voiced strongly his opinion that the Obama administration has failed to do something meaningful toward the resolution of the Palestinian question. But such argument was never raised with Obama's predecessor, who was much closer in rapport with the Saudi Ambassador.
What the Saudi rulers object to the most is the fact that the US, eager to reopen channels with Iran, even if it is to reign in their runaway nuclear ambitions, has gone forward with entreaties and offerings without consulting or bringing the Suadis in on the reapproachment, if one may call it that.
The Saudis are very much put out that the US could in future be in somewhat good relations with Iran at a moment when the Saudis are under great pressure to play a significant role both in the Syria conflict and the Middle East. A signal that their influence is irrelevant or in some way diminished, is bound to send chills down the Saudi spines.
Another great concern for the Saudi rulers is the removal of Hosni Mubarak. Without the powerful dictator at the helm and the increasing influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Saudi influence in the region could be greatly curtailed. Even worse is the scenario where the Saudi brewing unrest could take pointers from the Egyptian revolution and disrupt or even compromise the powerful grip the house of Saud has on its citizenry.
Even worse however, at least in the eyes of the Saudi regents, was the US's dropping of the ball in regards to the Syrian conflict. The Saudis were very much in favor of a military resolution of the Syrian conflict, even if that meant an uneasy alliance with the Isreali. But the current resolution of the clash that resulted in the destruction of the chemical weapon cache declared by Assad does nothing to resolve or quiet the dangerous conflict.
But with Saudis being one of the major armament clients for the US and the US being their principal oil buyers, there is little chance that the current 'outrage' will cause a rupture of the relationship.
The Saudis however, are insular and isolated in the middle east. They need the US as much as the US needs them, in terms of strategic defence.
So for now, the squawing may be loud, but ultimately, positions will hold firm.
Partial Source : Al Jazeera/ 11.12.13
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