SIBERIA CAVE FORMATIONS POINT TO A POSSIBLE SIGN OF PERMAFROST MELTING

courtesy: Oxford University

Researchers at the University at Oxford and teams of scientists from around the world, have discovered in a recent study that the melting of permafrost is possible with an increase of just 1.5 degrees Celsius in the present global temperature.  

This in turn could cause a permanent and irreversible thaw of the frozen tundra in Siberia, over large swaths of barren land, and if that happens all the carbon trapped in the frozen permafrost will be released into the atmosphere.  Such a sudden release could prove very damaging to natural and human environments.

The estimated carbon release could reach 1.000 giga-tons of CO2 and methane combined into the atmosphere.  This could have a significant impact in the increase of global warming trends in the globe.

The study focused on stalactites and stalagmites from caves that lie at the edge of the permafrost areas.  The layer of the permafrost can be as thick as hundred of meters.  The stalactites and stalagmites, only grow larger when the snow and ice melt drips inside the caves.  They are therefore a very good metre with which to measure climate change, since they are so slow forming, because they are testament to hundreds of thousands of years of climatic ups and downs. 

The last recorded thaw was approximately 400,000 years ago, as could be observed from the cave formation, and that record has suggested that a meager 1.5 increases in warmth from our current temperatures, which is what occurred in that era, can cause disceet thawing of the permafrost layers.  The study also suggested that temperature increases that were less than 1.5 from the present temperatures did not cause the thaw.

Apart from the direct consequences of the thawing, including the sinking of any structure built on the permafrost layer, the more significant effects would the enormous release of greenhouse gases.  

The scientists also pointed out that neighboring regions, which lie at the edges of the permafrost shelf, could be impacted. The Gobi desert could become inundated and become an entirely different ecosystem.  

Source: University of Oxford/ press release of 2.22.13