There is no turning of the heads with the German decision to stay away from the Syria intervention. It is all too predictable and accepted, the pacifist stance Germany has taken in the past decades. Germany also cites its economic burden, the reconstruction and assimilation of the old East Germany, with its crumbling infrastructure and poor economic record, which has impeded any extraordinary expenditure in the recent conflicts.
But what is interesting, is that notwithstanding its stance, Germany is siding with the US and France and other interventionists in offering proof that it was Assad who was responsible for the latest chemical attacks.
Such earnestness, in siding with one theory on the nature of the chemical attacks, speaks volumes as to Germany's own information gathering on the Syria conflict.
Although the German government does not offer its proof as absolute, it does offer solid evidence on the nature and agents behind the chemical attack.
The proof they offer is in the chemical compounds used in the attacks. The Assad regime, going back decades, converted a chemical industrial factory into a chemical weapons factory, and ammassed a very large chemical cache of a binary nature. Such binary chemical imprint is at the very basis of the contention that Assad is indeed culpable, if not directly through his generals or cohorts, of the strike that killed more than 1,000 citizens.
The other item that has convinced the German authorities is the delivery method of the sarin. Only the regime has the capability of arming missiles with the chemicals in an effective way. The spokesman for the German govt., Schindler also said that the Assad government had effected three more attacks prior to the last incident, in which the chemical had been diluted to achieve less traceability, and which led to lesser loss of life and hence more doubts on the nature of the attacks.
The justification, Schindler asserted, for Assad's attacks is also logical, if not clear: The city of Damascus is all but ringed with rebels on almost all sides, and the chemical attacks could have been employed to push back. In fact the majority of deaths, and strikes were in the eastern part of the capital, where most of the rebels are grouped.
Another theory too is that this last time there was an error in the dilution of the chemical which made it much deadlier, and in turn, much more noticeable.
The American report on the attack has detailed how the shells used to deliver the poison chemicals were 107 mm rockets, a standard ordnance of the regime.
That the rebels could have staged a 'recreation' of a government attack in such minute details and with such elaborate chemical preparation is very much in doubt.
In addition, German intelligence intercepts have detailed a conversation between Hezbollah and the Iranian Embassy. The Hezbollah member during the telephone call all but admits that Assad, feeling increasingly anxious of the rebel presence, lost his nerve and ordered the use of chemical weapons. In fact German authorities seem to deduce that the attack was carried out more to deter rebels advance than to kill civilians.
Behind the somber curtain of German non interventionism lies a concerted preparation to join the US in the case of a regional escalation of the conflict. A German warship is already on its way to the Mediterranean, more to assist with evacuation efforts than to bolster the saber rattling. Another one is already there to run surveillance and intercepts.
The question remains however, of what will Assad do if he realizes that his days are numbered. There is a very real possibility that he will launch chemical attacks on neighboring Jordan, a longstanding foe, and Lebanon. Strikes toward Israel are also a possibility. But if nothing is done, the reality of a wider Middle Eastern conflict are all but guaranteed.
Source : Spiegel/ 9.3.13
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