photo: standeyo
In October of 2010' a poor boy's dramatic suicide sparked the now front and center revolution known as the Arab Spring. As people follow further developments that have washed over the Middle East like a geopolitical tsunami with great apprehension, some of the hidden dynamics of the widening conflict are pointing to climate change.
It is not the first time that bells have gone off, sounded by weary and keen analysts who are taking pains to explain how climate change might have a prominent if not crucial role in defining conflicts and their birth now and in the future.
In the past couple of years severe droughts have affected nearly all the locales that have seen revolts or civil wars. Syria in particular seems to be a clear example of a direct cause and effect process which at the nexus of climate change and political hardship has found war.
If not by itself the chief cause, Climate change can be a so called 'accelerant' that can set afire a geographic region that is close to ignition.
Severe weather conditions in third world countries can tip the scale of an already unstable situation, by worsening scarcities of primary resources such as food and water. from there, the condition between desperation and unrest can quickly escalate into outright chaos and civil war.
Syria for example had experienced drought conditions for at least five years before the conflict. Bashar Al Assad's mismanagement of resources caused mass migration of people who abandoned the rural areas to seek employment and refuge in urban areas. as many as 800,000 people migrated in this period. This flow of new people brought more pressure in already stressed urban populations.
Although most conflicts are very complicated and climate change is rarely the only cause, water shortages are sure to bring tensions to even the most stable of places.
One of the places where climate change could bring unexpected unrest for example is China, where farmers are increasingly in a disadvantaged position in a country that is focusing primarily on industrialization. A prolonged drought could be the catalyst for widespread peasant revolts.
Although some countries like Mali are used to dealing with aridity, the new droughts are bringing unexpected challenges, because they last longer and they are more severe, so that their management becomes more difficult each passing decade.
And for some people, who are not as grounded or tied to their habitat, migration is often the only solution. In fact many tribes in the north of Africa have nomadic habits that were adopted as the only means of survival in such extreme condition. But migrations today often stokes unrest and ethnic tensions, not to mention economic and religious divisions.
For the Middle East, and other neighboring regions that are experienced first such incredible transitions, increased focus and management of the consequences of climate change will prove crucial, and the lessons we can learn from this area must be adopted and studied in the rest of the world. This in effect is the first line, the first clues of what is in store for the rest the world. And the world must pay attention, or suffer the consequences.
Source : climateandsecurity.gov
Mother Jones 3.6.13
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