SYRIAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO OBTAIN A FOOTHOLD DUE TO DISORGANIZATION

photo: presstv

Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper offered some insight on the reasons why the opposition in Syria is not quite as successful in gaining steady ground as it could be. 

First of all the opposition is a patchwork of hundreds of disjointed cells operating almost independently, on which central command of rebel forces are struggling to exercise power or direct in a unified plan.

Assad is seen as a foregone conclusion, one that will spell his end.  But the problem is, as dark and as final as the conflict is, there is no way of telling when it will end.  The only thing that everyone in the Intelligence community is sure of is that he will fall.

Another problem is the foreign fighters' own agenda.  There are a lot of foreign fighters in Syria, many coalescing around a radical islamist group called Nusra, which has already vowed to eliminate any Alawite, the Shia tribe Assad belongs to, once they win.  But this group is being controlled remotely by Al Qaeda.  And the reason why they are gaining ground is because they offering support and services that have all but become unavailable to the population. 

US officials are providing training and will continue to try to help the opposition by offering non lethal aid, and there is already a consensus that other neighboring countries are quietly training the rebels and offering arms supports with the knowledge and acquiescence of the rest of the world.  The UK just yesterday has expressed interest in bypassing the embargo to furnish arms to the rebels.

But there is a threat from these radical Islamist group that they could get their hands on the chemical and biological caches everyone thinks Assad has amassed.  And that must be avoided. 

However the Intelligence community is equally preoccupied that Assad too might make use of such caches. 

The other problem is Iran's unwavering and material support of the Assad regime.  They see their support as crucial, because the opposition is seen as a Sunni majority trying to depose a Shi'a minority dictatorship.  And the United States believes that Iran is not only providing arms and training but also men, even as Iran grinds under the heavy sanctions imposed by the UN for its violation of the nuclear proliferation ban. 

Iran is seen here as attempting to retain or gain a territorial foothold in some part of Syria, in the case Assad is deposed.  As always, Iran is the destabilizer in the region and it is playing a major role in the Syrian conflict.

Source: Alertnet. 3.13.13