Scientists are beginning to map various ecosystems to ascertain what changes global warming will engender on the different ecosystems.
One of the things that scientists are certain of, is that global warming will have an impact on every ecosystem in the world, with some areas bearing the brunt of the effect, compared to others.
The only way to stave off such radical changes, furthermore, is to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
In some cases boreal forests could turn into temperate savannahs. Barren arctic land could become repopulated with trees, and a possible dieoff of rainforest trees could occur, due to the increased heat stress.
These changes are not just cosmetic. They could bring great changes to the food and water supply. The destiny of man, therefore, is tied to whatever developments ensue as the world become warmer.
Even if mitigation efforts are undertaken, although it seems less and less likely as coutnries refuse to invest in the life saving programs, and keep the temperature at merely 2 degrees above preindustrial times, nearly 20% of all land ecosystems could still transform or be affected.
In order to measure these changes, scientists have created a model that measures the biogeochemistry of terrestrial vegetation and the actual numbers of certain floral species.
The model does take into account variables such as the release of carbon stored in trees and other flora and soil, and the availability of freshwater.
The areas at risk could be as high as 86% of the total ecosystems by 2100 at 5 degrees Celsuis above preindustrial levels, but it is unlikely that all the areas predicted will be affected. This is, in effect, a worse case scenario graph.
Source : Science Daily/ 10.09.13
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