Geologists have just discovered a 30 km long, 10 km wide, area south of Istanbul, along what is known as the Anatolian fault zone, that could be the next earthquake generator. It could veritably be the place where the next 'big one' starts. And it is only a dozen miles or so away from the metropolis. More than 15 million people live within the range of what would be the epicenter of the massive quake.
This new discovery raises the risk of exposure to a strong earthquake, of magnitude 7 or higher, for the millions of people who live in Istanbul and its environs.
The fault line is so dangerous, that is has prompted its own monitoring station on the Princess Island in the Marmara off the shore where Istanbul is located. The reason for its strategic placement is that is enables scientists to observe the fault in the portion that is under the sea.
What the observatory on Princess Island has determined, is that the area of Istanbul is in a 'lock' zone. A 'lock' zone is a zone that should be moving, but is not. That causes tension which is relieved only through a slippage or movement, which is the cause of the earthquakes. In addition, the zone is only 10 km deep, which would make the earthquake catastrophic. A 'lock' zone, in brief, is where seismologists expect an earthquake to originate/occur.
Additional clues that bolster this scientific notion, is the fact that the last strong earthquake ended in this zone, and probably in exactly the same point, causing even greater accumulation of tension between the two tectonic plates that underline the fault.
The increased danger has prompted scientists to call for even more in depth monitoring of the seismic activity below the ocean floor. To do so, several holes 300 meters deep will be drilled onto the ocean floor where highly sensitive sensors will be installed. This will enable the monitoring or subliminal earthquakes, those micro temblors that even regular seismometers ca fail to record, but which are the indicators or a larger slippage and quake.
This type of study will not only enhance the possibility of advance warnings but will also provide more data for the study of earthquakes at large.
Source : LiveScience/6.19.13
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