Climate scientists are somewhat bewildered by the slowdown in the global warming trend. In the past 15 years the mean temperatures globally have not risen as fast as the 20 years before that.
And that is odd, since greenhouse gases have risen quickly and accumulated in the atmosphere. Although global warming theories have already predicted that the rise in temperature will have peaks and valleys, the current trend shows more of a return to natural variability rather than human made upward pressure.
Scientists however, need to understand what exactly is causing the slowdown. They are hard pressed to do so, amidst constant criticism from disbelievers of warming theories.
But even though some theories have been formulated to explain the divergence from projected trends, most scientists are agreed they do no know exactly why this is happening. It also underscores what many fear: that scientists in total do not totally understand how climate works either because they do not have enough information or because there are complexities that have not yet been explored. And that is a serious problem, because plans to abate greenhouse gases emissions and other measures to reverse or at least slow global warming could be easily rejected by interested parties internationally if the researchers fail to come up with answers.
One thing however, is unchanged. The long term trend speaks unequivocally of rising temperatures.
In fact, scientists have tabulated the current rate of greenhouse emission to be equivalent to 400,000 Hiroshima type bombs every day. Where is all that energy going then? The only way to know for sure is to measure temperatures higher in the atmosphere and lower in the oceans, among other things.
What scientists suspect is that the heat is now accumulating in the oceans, since it is not warming the surface of the earth as predicted. The draw down of heat is a mystery, and we do not have the necessary instruments to measure deep ocean waters yet and solve that riddle. One of the causes of this draw down could be wind and current shifts that pull down the heat at a faster rate than before.
Another thing scientists are looking at is whether there are climate warming plateaus. In fact another plateau was registered during the years between 1950-1970, which is also to this day an unsolved chapter in metereology.
One of the theories that has gained some traction is that of pollution and particulates either trapping or reflecting sunlight. When clean air laws were enacted in the West, the warming trend seemed to resume.
Right now, that pollution is beginning to saturate the atmosphere again, as China and other developing countries are shifting form agricultural to industrial economies.
In fact, if we again reduce pollution, we might see a spike again that will likely cause another quick rise in global temperatures. With that will come more severe weather phenomenon and other dangerous natural occurrences.
source : Daily Caller/ 6.11.13
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